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Global Risks: Horizon Scanning 2026 - France

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In our annual Horizon Scanning report, experts from across our international offices explore key developments in global risks during 2025, and look ahead to the challenges for 2026.

Urban violence: The French government defends compulsory riot insurance in property policies

A government amendment submitted to the Senate has reignited the debate on the creation of compulsory riot insurance. This unexpected resurgence revives an issue that many believed had been shelved. The compulsory riot insurance has resurfaced in the Senate's draft budget bill (PLF). On 8 December, the government quietly tabled an amendment reintroducing this measure. 

A scenario studied by the Treasury this summer, then forgotten

In early September 2025, a scenario was being studied by the Treasury: the creation of a state-guaranteed riot fund covering losses from the first euro up to €775 million, with the introduction of a mandatory guarantee in all property policies and the application of a 5% surcharge. It is this project, which many believed had been abandoned in the Autumn, that now seems to be returning in the bill.

The surprise is all the greater given that none of these provisions appeared in the version of the 2026 Finance Bill presented to the Council of Ministers on 14 October. This text made no mention whatsoever of the issue of urban violence, even though the insurance sector feared that the status quo would be difficult to maintain.

A structural mechanism designed to restore the insurability of riot risk

On 8 December 2025, the government finally reintroduced the measure by tabling an amendment for consideration by the Senate. Following the adoption of the “income” section of the budget on 4 December, the Upper House is now examining the second part of the text, which includes spendings and related legislative measures. It is in this context that the executive proposes to create a compulsory guarantee covering material damage related to riots in all property damage insurance contracts.

With this amendment, the government introduces a structural mechanism designed to restore the insurability of a risk that has become difficult for insurers to bear. The model is based on that used for natural disasters: national mutualisation, dedicated additional premiums, mandatory standard clauses and the possibility of referring the matter to the Central Rating Office in the event of refusal of cover. A precise definition of “riot” is introduced – violent collective action aimed at imposing social or political demands – and a commission will be required to confirm that events fall within this framework. Acts of war, terrorist acts and cyber-attacks are explicitly excluded.

The reform also provides for the creation of a mutualisation fund financed by additional premiums. It would be backed by a reinsurance scheme that could mobilise the French public reinsurer Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR) under State guarantee. However, its entry into force will depend on the European Commission giving the green light in terms of compliance with State aid law, followed by a decree to be adopted within 12 months of this decision. 

On the ground, reactions range from cautious relief to serious concern. For brokers, it is the new premium surcharge that is causing the most concern. Agents are concerned that policyholders are going to complain again. After the natural disaster (CATNAT) surcharge and increases linked to climate risks, an additional levy could be difficult to explain.

State liability

Finally, the amendment includes a notable clarification: the State will not be civilly liable for damages covered by the guarantee. This position, and especially its timing, may come as a surprise, given that the Nouméa Administrative Court has just held that the State is liable for failing to maintain order.

 

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