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Global Risks: Horizon Scanning 2026 - Italy

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In the Global Risks Horizon Scanning report we discuss key Italian insurance market developments, covering anti-fraud reforms, ethical AI regulation and new mandatory catastrophic risk insurance obligations and opportunities.

Despite a growing insurance market, especially in non-life insurance, one of the main obstacles preventing insurers from investing in the Italian market is about to be removed.

Fighting fraud

Until the approval of Law no. 193 of 16 December 2024, the only instrument available to prevent frauds in the Italian market was the so called “Banca Dati Sinistri”, a database compiled by the Italian Independent Authority supervising private insurance, IVASS.  The database contains information in respect of mandatory third party motor liability insurance and collects information concerning, for example, claims, parties involved and witnesses.  It is available to all motor insurers and gives them the ability to investigate potential frauds – reflecting in savings for both the insurers and the market. 

The new Law no. 193 of 16 December 2024 has the same aim of combating fraud in non-mandatory classes of business, through the establishment of a similar database managed by insurers' national representative, ANIA, known as the “Archivio Integrato Antifrode”.  This new database will be regulated and supervised by IVASS in compliance with the European and local Data Protection Regulations. Participating insurance companies will input data to the system which will be an important instrument in mitigating the risk of fraud in all the classes of business.

AI

In common with other markets, Italian insurers are looking to AI technology to improve performance.  In this regard,  the recent introduction of the IA Act through European Regulation no. 1689/2024 will grant the Italian market the possibility to implement artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data and blockchain technologies, not just to facilitate a more sensitive approach to risks, but also the possibility to standardise some of the insurers' internal processes and offer the buyers products customised to their specific needs.

Italy has been the first European Country to approve a law in this respect (Legge 23 September 2025, no. 132, Italian Official Gazette no. 223 dated 25 September 2025) by which an organic action is taken in various strategic sectors characterized by high risk in the use of AI – healthcare, employment, public administration, justice, education, and sports – leveraging the potential of AI for innovation and service improvement. The legislation pays particular attention to cybersecurity, accessibility, confidentiality, and personal data protection, whilst promoting the ethical, responsible and human-centric use of AI. 

With regard to the issue of liability arising from the use of such technologies, the Law has already introduced safeguards such as the traceability of decision-making processes, human responsibility, and the centrality of the final decision always being entrusted to a natural person, even in automated contexts. This then ensures a balance between technological innovation and the protection of rights, thereby strengthening confidence in the use of artificial intelligence in the public and private sectors.

Nat-Cat risks 

The 2024 Budget Law (Article 1, paragraphs 101-112, of Law No. 213 of December 30, 2023) requires companies with registered offices in Italy and most companies with registered offices abroad with a permanent establishment in Italy, with the exception of agricultural companies referred to in Article 2135 of the Civil Code, to take out insurance against the risk of damage caused to company assets by natural disasters and catastrophic events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, inundations, and overflowing rivers. Similarly, a duty to insure such risks has been imposed on those insurance companies pursuing business in Italy, even under the Freedom of Establishment regime (FoE), in the relevant class of business.  The duty to insure imposed on the insurer shall take into consideration the limit of capacity determined – in the Risk Appetite Framework – by each insurer.

The content of this insurance is regulated by a ministerial regulation issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Made in Italy. The regulation also requires the insurance premiums to be adequate and proportionate to the level of risks and calculated on the basis of factors relating to the location of the risk within the territory. In this perspective, considering that the entry in force of the duty has been postponed by Law No. 78 of May 27, 2025, of Decree Law No. 39 of March 31, 2025, catastrophic risk insurance is mandatory:

This new measure has introduced a wide, new opportunity for the market but also new tasks for insurance companies which are facing the complexity of setting a level of premium proportionate to the level of risks to which each company is exposed under the product oversight and governance process (POG).

 

Download Global risks: Horizon scanning report