UK wide data
The latest UK labour market figures from the ONS for the period September to November show a steady market. The headlines for the period show the UK unemployment rate largely unchanged on the quarter at 4.2%. The UK employment rate was also largely unchanged at 75.7%. The UK economic inactivity rate was largely unchanged on the quarter at 20.9%.
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 45,000 on the quarter to 949,000. This was the 17th consecutive fall – the longest consecutive run of quarterly falls ever recorded. Despite data showing a reduced number of vacancies, we are still seeing some movement in the market as employees seeks out more lucrative pay packages to meet rising costs and ease the pressure on household finances.
The annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) remains strong in Great Britain at 7.3% in August to October 2023. The Low Pay Commission has announced that the recommended rates for the National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage have been accepted. The National Living Wage will rise from £10.42 to £11.44 per hour and the age threshold will be lowered to 21. Whilst this pay increase will be welcomed by workers, employers are facing increased financial pressure to meet this increased overhead whilst also battling other rising costs.
Scotland data
During the period August to October 2023 Scotland's labour market showed continued resilience despite the economic climate. The unemployment rate decreased slightly, while the employment rate increased slightly and the inactivity rate stayed the same. The headlines for the period show the adjusted experimental unemployment rate for Scotland was 3.8%, down 0.1% over the quarter. By way of comparison Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 4.2%. The adjusted experimental employment rate in Scotland was 74.3%, up 0.1% over the quarter. Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 75.7%.
Early seasonally adjusted estimates for November 2023 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time Information indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,334, up 4.4% compared to November 2022. The Low Pay Commission has announced that the recommended rates for the National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage have been accepted. The National Living Wage will rise from £10.42 to £11.44 per hour and the age threshold will be lowered to 21. This pay increase will put an added squeeze on employers who are already battling other rising costs. It will be important for employers which pay the minimum wage or close to the minimum wage to carry out an audit and calculate the increased cost of the new rates.
Northern Ireland data
The latest labour market figures show a steady labour market. The latest HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers decreased by 0.1% over the month and increased by 1.7% over the year. NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,064 in November 2023, a decrease of £38 (1.8%) over the month but an increase of £46 (2.3%) over the year. Employee jobs increased over both the quarter and the year to a new high of 822,870 jobs in September 2023.
Quarterly increases in employee jobs were seen within the manufacturing, construction and services sectors to September 2023. Employee jobs within the other industries sector decreased over the quarter to September 2023. The Labour Force survey shows an increase of 1.5pps in the employment rate over the year to August-October 2023 to 72.8% while there were decreases in the economic inactivity rate (by 0.9pps to 25.8%) and the unemployment rate (by 0.6pps to 2.1%). Overall, these figures indicate that there is still movement in the NI job market as employees seek out more favourable pay packages to meet the demands of higher living costs.
From 1 April 2024, the National Minimum Wage will rise from £10.42 to £11.44 per hour and the age threshold will be lowered to 21. While this increase will be welcomed by workers, employers will need to budget carefully to meet these higher employee costs.
