UK wide data
The headline figures for the period show an employment rate of 74.4%, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased on the latest quarter. Further highlighting the challenging market, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, above estimates of a year ago, and increased in the latest quarter.
In the period April to June 2024, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased by 30,000 on the quarter to 889,000 – the 24th consecutive reported decrease.
Annual growth in employees' average earnings in Great Britain was 5.7% in the period March to May 2024, and annual growth in total earnings was 5.7%. Employees have consistently demonstrated that they are prepared to move jobs for higher salaries. Employers are doing their best to stem the flow of lost talent by increasing pay where they can.
It is perhaps unsurprising that the labour market has shown some sign of difficulties against a challenging economic climate. With the General Election behind us and a new government in place we are expecting a raft of employment legislation which will inevitably impact the employment market. We may well see employers acting with some degree of caution, particularly with regard to recruitment with unfair dismissal protection pledged to become a day one right.
NI data
The latest labour market figures from Northern Ireland show continued resilience against a difficult economic climate. The figures show that over the year both payrolled employee numbers and earnings have increased. Further, all the Labour Force Survey headline measures have improved over the year, with unemployment and economic inactivity rates both decreasing and the employment rate increasing.
The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in Northern Ireland in June 2024 was 808,000, an increase of 0.4% over the month and an increase of 2.4% over the year. Earnings from HMRC PAYE indicated that Northern Ireland employees had a median monthly pay of £2,329 in June 2024, an increase of £83 over the month and an increase of £235 over the year. The unemployment rate for the period March to May 2024 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2%. This was a decrease of 0.2% over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3% over the year. The proportion of people in work decreased by 0.6% over the quarter and increased by 0.3% over the year to 71.1%.
With the much anticipated consultation published on the "Good Jobs" Employment Rights Bill we can expect further change in the Northern Ireland employment market. The consultation covers terms of employment, pay and benefits, voice and representation and work-life balance and runs until 30 September 2024. The appetite for change is certainly there, however we will have to wait and see what the outcome is of the extensive consultation.
Scotland data
The Scottish Labour Market figures for the period March to May 2024 indicate that over the quarter the unemployment rate increased, while the employment rate decreased and the inactivity rate increased. The headline figures for this period show the employment rate in Scotland was 72.9%, down 1.3% over the quarter. By way of comparison Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 74.4%. The unemployment rate in Scotland was 4.9%, up 0.8% over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was above the UK rate of 4.4%. Considering the ongoing economic challenges it is perhaps unsurprising that we have seen some cooling of the labour market. The figures also reflect a period when there was some degree of political uncertainty with a General Election looming.
Early seasonally adjusted estimates for June 2024 from HMRC Pay As You Earn Real Time information indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,413, an increase of 5.2% compared to June 2023. This is higher than the growth in median monthly pay for the UK over the same period. Employers are doing their best to meet demands for higher pay, only too aware that employees are prepared to change jobs for increased salaries.
Change is on the horizon for the employment market with a new government now in place and employment law reform high up on the agenda. In Labour's Plan to Make Work Pay we saw a raft of employment law commitments, including introducing unfair dismissal as a day one right. We may well see employers take a cautious approach to recruitment over the coming months as they adapt to the changes. As we no doubt are about to enter a period of extensive consultation on the proposed reform, employers will be taking the opportunity to assess the impact of change on the workforce.
