Global Risks: Horizon Scanning 2026 - Specialty Lines

Accident and health/personal accident

In 2025 sports injury trends were overall quite positive, despite the increasing congested schedules and the ever increasing physical demands on athletes.  For example, injuries per 100 minutes in the English Premier League are dropping as are concussion injuries in the NFL.

Whether these slightly positive trends can continue in 2026 remains to be seen. Rule changes will likely have an impact, as although rules designed to increase player safety are consistently being added, in the battle for entertainment governing bodies continue to make changes to try and increase the intensity and action in their product. In 2026, therefore, insurers will be alert to future rule changes that will increase the demands on their insureds for the sake of increasing the amount of “action” and inevitably increase the likelihood of injuries. For example, there is ongoing debate on whether to increase women's tennis from best of 3 to best of 5 sets, include a basketball/American football style stopwatch for football and increase rounds in women's boxing from 2 minutes to 3 minutes. Changes like these would not doubt increase injury rates.

In 2026 we anticipate that further progress will be made with respect to understanding and handling concussion injuries. For insurers these injuries present a unique challenge. Firstly, due to the nature of concussions, it is common for athletes to be warned that it is the next concussion that will be the harmful one, which is relevant for proving disablement. Secondly, it is often the cumulative impact of multiple concussions and the timing of them that leads to lasting damage, which is relevant to causation. Finally, technology is advancing but is still not at a level where it can provide definitive answers, so tests still often rely on player feedback, which can be highly subjective.

In 2025 there were also some interesting developments in the lawsuit brought by ex-professional rugby players against World Rugby, Rugby Football Union and Welsh Rugby Union. Firstly, the number of claimants has increased significantly and now over 1,100 players are claiming that repetitive head impacts during their careers caused long term conditions like CTE and dementia. Secondly, 21 test cases will be selected ahead of the trial. The test cases will supposedly be a representative sample of the different neurological conditions diagnosed among the claimants, factoring in the competitions they played in. As this case continues to progress in 2026 insurers will get a much better view of how evidence of concussions in sports is viewed by the courts, which will then impact both underwriting and claims handling in this space. How the courts decide to apportion any liability between local and global governing bodies will also be of huge interest to insurers. There is also a similar lawsuit progressing through the courts brought by former footballers.

Contingency

Civil commotion and terrorism risks are expected to remain key concerns for event organisers and insurers in 2026. Political volatility, amplified by social media and misinformation, continues to accelerate unrest and mobilisation, with no signs of easing; and terrorist attacks jumped by 63% in the West during 2024, with Europe most affected (a 67% increase: GTI 2025).
Organisers are likely to continue to seek extensions for strike, riots, civil commotion and terrorism, while insurers will want to ensure they are comfortable with when cover is extended (likely with heavy scrutiny on the event’s policing and security measures), and when exclusions apply – whether the risk must be the proximate cause of cancellation / abandonment of an event, or if a broader causal link suffices.

Climate change is likely to also remain a major factor. Extreme weather increasingly disrupts events, sometimes requiring mitigation measures to allow the event to go ahead (coverage for which may be unclear), or outright cancellations for safety reasons. Historic scheduling strategies to avoid heavy rain or high heat are also less reliable as weather patterns shift, challenging underwriters’ ability to price risks accurately.

Finally, COVID-19 exclusions may warrant review. For many, COVID-19 now resembles a common cold or flu, making exclusions for a positive test appear less justified, although they are likely to stay for as long as they are mandated by reinsurers. Insurers with both a broad “Communicable Disease” exclusion and a standalone COVID-19 exclusion may however wish to at least consider whether both are required.

Equine & livestock

We have continued work on cases within the bloodstock and livestock sector this year. An ongoing issue remains the placement of facultative reinsurance, particularly where business is underwritten in jurisdictions with developing legal systems that differ significantly from those familiar to an English law environment. These challenges within the market will likely persist into 2026.

Looking ahead, disease prevalence remains a critical concern. Veterinary bodies have observed rising incidence and potential for large-scale outbreaks of serious equine diseases including African Horse Sickness and West Nile Virus. Of particular note is the expansion of West Nile Virus across the European continent, with new cases being recorded along the Atlantic coast in Western France, North Germany and a bridging of cases between Central and Eastern Spain.

This upward trend in recorded cases is thought to be driven by climatic, ecological and anthropogenic factors, making Northern European territories more susceptible to outbreaks. Insurers and claims teams should therefore review policy wordings on disease and vaccination requirements to ensure they provide adequate protection in light of these evolving risks.

Fine art & specie

The fine art and specie market is entering a period of rapid transformation, driven by evolving risks and shifting client behaviours.

Climate risk remains a key consideration for insurers and art collectors, with climate-related risk coverage rising 43% in recent years. The Palisades wildfires in January of this year are thought to have led to claims exceeding USD1 billion for the global fine art and specie market, making it the largest ever loss for the class and underscoring the vulnerability of at least private collections to catastrophic events. Insurers may recalibrate premiums, enforce stricter storage requirements, and potentially even withdraw from high-risk areas as a result.

Beyond physical risks, the market also faces digital and behavioural shifts that are less obvious but equally disruptive.

There has been a clear shift in collector demographics. As wealth transfers to younger generations, preferences are leaning towards smaller, mobile collections; temporary exhibitions; and entirely new mediums including digital art and NFTs. Gen Z makes up 6.2% of high-end buyers of art, yet drives 82% of online purchases; and 18-34 year olds dominate the NFT market. This trend is reshaping the market and forcing insurers, galleries, and auction houses to adapt. Adoption of digital art insurance has seen a 57% uptick, suggesting there may be increasing demand for bespoke policies catering to NFTs and digital assets.

As collections move online and digital art gains traction, cyber vulnerabilities and threats become a critical concern – to ensure authenticity and ownership security. Recent breaches at Christie’s (2024) and Gallery Systems (2023) also highlight the exposure of institutions handling high-value transactions. Cyber coverage may therefore soon become a standard component of FAS policies, complemented by partnerships with cybersecurity specialists to safeguard client data.

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