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Global Risks: Horizon Scanning 2026 - Healthcare

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In our annual Horizon Scanning report, experts from across our international offices explore key developments in global risks during 2025, and look ahead to the challenges for 2026.

2025 was marked by rising claims costs and regulatory momentum. The long-awaited reforms in the aesthetics sector began to take shape, while clinical negligence liabilities continued to climb, straining NHS budgets and insurer reserves.

As we move into 2026, several developments will shape the healthcare risk landscape for insurers:

Regulation in aesthetics

The UK Government’s new licensing framework aims to bring order to the aesthetics market. High-risk procedures, such as non-surgical Brazilian Butt Lifts, will be restricted to qualified professionals in CQC-registered premises. Lower-risk treatments like Botox and fillers will require local authority licensing, alongside mandatory insurance and hygiene standards. These changes promise greater safety but may drive short-term disruption as providers adapt.

Weight loss jabs 

The surge in demand for GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro is transforming obesity and diabetes care but introduces new risk dimensions. Some reports link these drugs to serious side effects, including pancreatitis, kidney complications and gastrointestinal issues. Hospitalisations and litigation risks are rising, with prescriber responsibility and product liability under scrutiny. Limited long-term safety data, high costs and off-label prescribing risks persist. Counterfeit injections and online sales amplify exposure to harm and claims. GLP-1 therapies are among the fastest-growing cost drivers in health insurance, creating sustainability challenges and fraud risks. Weight regain after discontinuation, social media-driven demand and inequitable access raise reputational and ethical dilemmas. For insurers, proactive risk management – through robust underwriting, clear policy wording and engagement with emerging clinical guidance – will be critical.

Clinical negligence costs

The financial burden remains significant. NHS Resolution paid out £3.1 billion in 2024/25 in clinical negligence compensation and all associated legal costs, with maternity claims alone accounting for £1.3 billion. Legal fees for low value claims often exceed damages by four times. While Fixed Recoverable Costs could save £50 million annually, implementation has stalled. Insurers face continued exposure to claims inflation and discount rate volatility.

Budgetary signals

The Autumn Budget pledged £300 million for NHS technology upgrades but avoided structural reform of negligence costs. With £58.2 billion earmarked for future liabilities, the system’s sustainability is under scrutiny. Economic headwinds such as global inflation and tariff risks could compound pressures, potentially driving resource shortages and increasing negligence risk.

AI in healthcare

AI is rapidly reshaping healthcare delivery and risk profiles. 

Ambient clinical intelligence tools automate documentation, freeing clinicians for patient care and cutting admin costs. Some AI tools now detect strokes, fractures and cancers faster and more accurately than humans, reducing errors and improving outcomes. Generative AI accelerates drug development and enables precision medicine through genomic data integration. 

However, liability for AI-driven decisions remains unclear, bias in algorithms could widen health inequalities and cybersecurity threats loom large. This is likely to lead to increased regulation demanding transparency and governance. 

Insurers must prepare for evolving liability, regulatory scrutiny, and ethical challenges while leveraging AI-driven insights for competitive advantage.

2026 will be a year of transition. Regulatory reform in aesthetics promises greater safety but may drive short-term disruption. Meanwhile, unchecked clinical negligence costs and systemic pressures demand proactive risk management. For insurers, the challenge lies in balancing innovation with resilience – ensuring clients are equipped for a future where healthcare risk is both evolving and intensifying.

 

Download Global risks: Horizon scanning report