2025 has been another eventful year from a PV/PRTC perspective. Undoubtedly, the significant level of geopolitical uncertainty we have seen will continue into 2026 and beyond.
United States
In the US, President Trump’s unpredictable approach to politics is fuelling global political and economic uncertainty, not just around tariffs but also in relation to his interactions with other world leaders and his assertive approach to global conflicts. Certainly, Trump’s actions in the next 12 to 18 months will continue to have a significant impact on the global landscape and the scope for political risk and political violence claims. Trump’s trade war is already resulting in claims inflation and is presenting insurers with uncertainty around investment returns and capital planning. A surge in tariffs also presents the potential for increased trade credit losses.
Global unrest
More widely, global unrest has continued throughout 2025. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has persisted, with the US brokering an increasingly fragile ceasefire in October 2025. With elections due to be held in Israel in October 2026, there is scope for a significant sea change in the political landscape and Israel’s global relations in the coming year. However, it is difficult to envisage a true end to the conflict without a clear path to a Palestinian state. At present, that remains a key sticking point.
Elsewhere, the Russia/Ukraine war has become one of the most entrenched global conflicts. Despite articles suggesting there have been significant Russian gains, the frontline has not moved much throughout the conflict; at the rate of advancement seen in 2025, it could take Russia up to 100 years to conquer the entirety of Ukraine. Whilst Trump is continuing to push for a deal that would involve Ukraine making concessions, it does not appear that an end to the conflict is in sight. Going forwards, the conflict will continue to test Europe’s unity, including as we have seen Russian jet/drone incursions across western airspace, attacks against European infrastructure and an increasing presence of Russian spy ships in UK waters.
Increased demand for trade credit
Unrest in other parts of the world is also creating further uncertainty. For example, the US has warned that China is readying its military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027 and, to date, Trump has not pledged public support for Taiwan. The civil war in Sudan that began in 2023 continues, with the UN warning of “intensified hostilities” ahead. All of this has resulted in increased demand for trade credit and political risk cover amid a volatile political risk environment and global supply chain disruption, although gross written premium, particularly in trade credit, has not seen the same increase as other lines of business.
For trade credit insurers, the implementation of Basel 3.1 has been delayed to 1 January 2027 to allow “more time for greater clarity to emerge about plans for its implementation in the United States”, with a deadline for full implementation by 1 January 2030. In comparison, the EU started implementation of Basel 3.1 at the beginning of 2025 as and is adopting a phased approach, with completion also due by 1 January 2030.
