The oscillating geopolitical tensions predicted in the 2025 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report proved to be prescient to the extent that fears around state-based armed conflict and geoeconomic confrontations worsened significantly from an already uncertain base. The fallout from President Trump’s 3 January 2026 intervention into Venezuela - and from possible escalations in Cuba and Colombia - is yet to be ascertained, whilst the world grapples with the ongoing ramifications from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continuing tensions in the Middle East. An experienced meteorologist is not required to predict that the horizon for 2026 is far from settled.
The international shipping industry
In 2026 we expect that these uncertainties will provide continued challenges and opportunities for marine insurers – set against the background of a softer market – due to their assured’s being required to deal with further tests to supply chain resilience and diversification. The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of approximately 90% of world trade. Geopolitical tensions disrupt maritime trade, resulting in rerouting, rising war-risk premiums and delays due to issues with container fleet capacity (as well as an increased risk-profile and the environmental cost resulting from expanded trade routes).
Impact of changing risk
We anticipate that insurers will continue to see the impact of changing risk profiles due to geopolitical rivalries, protectionist trade barriers, conflict, competition for resources and climate events. Attacks on subsea cables continue as well as sustained attacks on Russian and Ukrainian Ports. Reports persist of seizures by Iran of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf on the pretence of combatting smuggling activities. A tentative return to Red Sea trade routes remains dependent on security matters in Gaza, with pronouncements from the Houthis on safe passage needing to be taken with a pinch of salt. In the meantime, a worrying re-emergence of Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden and crew kidnappings and robberies off the Coast of West Africa show little signs of abating.
Marine insurers should continue to review their exposures, react swiftly to a changeable landscape, and rely on due diligence measures to manage risks.
